If we want to know the real answer to what health care reform will cost, who should we ask?

-The government?
-The health insurance companies?
-The DR's and hospitals?
-The Drug companies?

I have a feeling we will not get a real straight answer from any of the above.

What about an Actuary?
Or for lack of a better term, a 'bean counter' that establishes costs based upon risk.

Does health insurance in this country have to do with risk? Some would argue no, we should provide it just like Fannie and Freddie provided houses to some that were not a good risk.

If we do not want another Freddie and Fannie on our hands we MUST look at the overall risk.

Health care and the risks that accompany it have to be calculated based on some of the following factors, whether you provide a private or public option:

-How many people will be covered?
-How many people will not be covered?
-What is the overall health of the total population?
-What does medical care cost?
-What will be covered?
-What will not be covered?

One common consensus among actuaries is that if you cannot charge or qualify a person based on medical risk the ONLY way to make this work is that everyone must be covered. Many do not understand this and many think you should have to right to sign up for health insurance only when you get sick or when you need it.

The easy answer to this is to try to compare it to auto insurance. If you passed a law that said you can sign up for auto insurance after you have an accident, your auto insurance would be 100 times the amount it is now and would make it unaffordable to most.

Currently there is no mandate or law that requires you to have health insurance. Some can't afford it, some quite frankly can but choose not to buy, so when they have medical expenses everyone ends up paying.....you and me in taxes, the insurance companies get charged more to make up for those that do not have coverage, etc.

Actuaries do one thing: they research and provide a cost analysis based on risk and costs. Actuaries have nothing to gain like drug companies, insurance companies, or DR's and hospitals. They do not profit based on the factors....they just give the numbers.

To read more about what some actuaries are saying click here: Actuaries look at the cost of a US health plan